Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Inter Milan v Bayern Munich Champions League final

Two near perfect performances by Inter Milan, away to Chelsea and at home to Barcelona in the first leg of this semi-final, has left the Nerazzurri on the verge of a first Champions League final since 1972.

The popular thesis for this evening's second leg is that Barcelona will get the win on home turf, but not by a hefty enough margin to come back from 3-1 behind, a margin that has regularly proven unassailable in European two-leggers.

However, there's little value backing the home win at 1.44, a price that doesn't give anywhere near enough credit to an Inter side that have already won at Stamford Bridge, where - at that point - Chelsea had lost fewer games than Barcelona have at the Nou Camp this season, and have twice ground out victories on notoriously difficult trips to face Eastern European clubs.

All the pressure is on the holders and that will play into Inter's hands and present the Serie A leaders with an opportunity to become the first team to win every knockout match en route to the final since the inception of the round of 16. And what better way to fire a warning to the last 100 per cent knockout campaigners, which just so happened to be Bayern Munich in 2001?

Another big advantage for Jose Mourinho's men is that this is an unfamiliar position for Barcelona to be in, one that they are inexperienced in finding a way out of. They haven't trailed after a first leg in three seasons, since Liverpool dumped them out, and haven't progressed in such circumstances in over eight years.

Inter's fierce attacking quartet of Wesley Sneijder, Goran Pandev, Diego Milito and Samuel Eto'o, the difference-makers in their big wins over Chelsea and Barca, have all travelled despite injury concerns over Sneijder and Pandev, while Mario Balotelli also makes a rather surprising return to the fold.

Punters' belief in the Italian side, and perhaps more specifically Mourinho, is proven by their status as 2.66 Champions League favourites ahead of Bayern despite still having to see off Barcelona. The reward for taking that faith to the next level and backing them at 7.8 tonight could be handsome.